Crime Fiction Dossier

Interview with literary agent Simon Lipskar

Simon Lipskar, a literary agent at Writers House, is one of the top agents in the business. He represents a wide range of writers, including major authors in literary and commercial fiction, narrative nonfiction and young adult fiction. He graciously agreed to answer some questions.

Q. What's the best way for an unpublished writer to get an agent?

This is going to sound agonizingly reductive, but the answer is to worry less about finding an agent and more about writing the best possible book.  If the book is great, old-fashioned queries (though hopefully with less paper waste via email submission) are the best way to garner interest.  But don't bother looking until you're confident your book is as good as it can be.  I guess part of the question you're asking is if going to conferences and meeting agents on the prowl will help; my basic feeling is usually not.  What you're selling is on the page: if it's there, it's there, if it's not, it's not.

Q.  What do you look for in a prospective client?

More reductiveness: a great writer.  A determined writer.  A writer who's willing to work as hard on her craft as her career (and vice versa).  Recognizing that writing is a solo act but publishing is a team effort is helpful, but I'll represent a raging egomaniac who is a brilliant writer -- the work always comes first, period.

Q. What are publishers buying right now?

The further adventures of reductiveness: books they can sell.  What that is precisely changes from time to time, of course.  In terms of thrillers, which are your primary area of interest, editors are looking for thrillers that aren't like all the others.  Sure, there's still money to be made writing Da Vinci Code knockoffs, but that's growing staler by the moment.  Originality and freshness seem to be the watchwords on everyone's lips.  I should also add that there's a pretty sour vibe in publishing these days about the marketplace, even more so than usual; nobody is feeling all that great about the health of the bookselling market, and that makes for nervousness all around.

Q. Does it make any sense for writers to try to write to the market or is that a futile enterprise?

Almost invariably futile.  I know one or two cases in which writers wrote books specifically to catch a particular wave in which this gambit worked, but usually this just serves to waste vast amounts of precious time.  Writers should write the books they love.  That way, no matter what the market says, their time wasn't wasted.

Q. What's the one thing that you think all writers should know about the publishing business but don't?

That most of us (publishing folks) really love books.  That most of us really care about publishing books well, that we take it personally. This is not a business for folks who are just looking for a job to pass the time -- it's well beyond 9-5 for most of us, and it usually doesn't compensate the average editor or agent nearly well enough given the amount of time, dedication and passion he or she gives.  So often I get the sense that writers think we really couldn't give a damn about books and publishing them well -- and that's just a profound misreading of this business and the people who work in it.

Are you sure you want to be a writer?

Poets & Writers magazine has an excellent interview with agent Nat Sobel. Everyone should definitely read the whole thing -- it's full of great stories and information and observations about the world of publishing. (The material about working with James Ellroy is fascinating.)

I wanted to highlight one particular part of the interview. Sobel talks about how difficult it is to sell fiction, especially by new authors, and especially by male authors (unless it's a thriller):

Five of us in the agency read submissions...We generally read partial manuscripts, or complete manuscripts. Everyone averages about two of those per week. So, in an average year, that's more than five hundred manuscripts. Last year, from those five hundred books, we took on three new writers. And we were only able to sell one of them.

You sure you want to be a writer still?

How not to run a small press

If you're a publisher, this is an example of how not to do business. The following is a real exchange I had recently with the representative of a small press. The name of the company and the author have been changed to avoid embarrassing them.

Email received on 12/20/07:

Dear David:

I was glad to find your site!

As a small press, we'd really appreciate a review or interview of Author X's upcoming novel XYZ. The novel is not available until mid to late January but information on it is posted on our site at [website] under novels.

[Plot summary omitted.]

Please, let me know if you'd consider interviewing Author X or reviewing her book.

I replied on 12/20/07:

I can try to take a look.

Ordinarily in situations like this I decline...But I suppose I was feeling generous due to the Christmas spirit.

Well, I never heard anything. (And, of course, immediately forgot all about it.) Until this email arrived on 3/29/08:

I'd love to send you a copy, however, if I don't know for sure there's going to be a review (either good or bad), I don't send them out. We're a small press.  Can you let me know if you are for sure interested in reviewing it and posting it?

Let's set aside for the moment the fact that it took them 3 months to reply -- by which time the book had zero chance of getting reviewed anyway. (I'm currently reading May books for possible review -- not January books.) The notion that a reviewer is going to promise to review a book before they've even seen it is so ludicrous that it boggles the mind.

So I replied:

Chances are, at best, 1 in 20 for a review. It's the same with all the books I receive.

I can understand where you're coming from, but no legitimate critic can guarantee a review. The business just doesn't work that way.

Sorry.

The publisher replied back:

Thanks anyway.

This exchange just goes to show that anyone can call themselves a publisher these days without actually learning how the business works. As I said in my reply above, no legitimate book reviewer is going to guarantee a publisher a review. It doesn't work like that. Publishers send the books and take their chances. It doesn't matter if you're Random House or Dave's Fly-by-Night Press -- the rules are the same.

The sad part is, people are entrusting this company with the fate of their books -- and clearly they have very little idea what they're doing.

Speaking of promotion: James Patterson

ABC News has a piece on James Patterson that I found interesting. It contains some eye-opening stats -- he's sold 150 million books; an incredible 1 out of every 35 books sold last year was one of his -- along with the usual stuff about co-writers, his marketing background, etc.

Here's a quote from Patterson that I loved:

"There are thousands of people around the country who don't like what I do," he said. "Fortunately, there are millions who like it a lot."

Most of the time when Patterson's name comes up in conversation with other writers, he's referred to with derision.

I always shake my head when I hear people make those kinds of statements, because I think they just don't get it. We should be learning from what Patterson is doing. We should be studying his methods and strategies, and figuring out how we can apply his lessons to our own work.

I don't care if people think the books are lousy -- many of them are not very good, but so what? That's not the point. What matters is that he's selling books. And that's something we all need to learn to do better.

(hat tip)

Thoughts on promotion

I know that not everyone reads the comments section, so I wanted to pull out these remarks I left on the post below regarding book trailers. I'm responding to two prior comments in the thread.

JD Rhoades wrote: "What it all boils down to, I fear, is that none of us really know what works."

Alex Sokoloff wrote: "The thing is, it ALL works, to one degree or another."

Those two statements go right to the heart of this discussion, I think. When it comes to marketing books, most things you try will work to one degree or another -- but what's nearly impossible is learning what degree that is.

That's why I urge authors to think long and hard, and to gather as much information as they can, before they commit to spending their time or money on promotional activities.

Someone will tell you, "You have to spend $5k on a book trailer" while someone else will say, "You've got to spend an hour every day blogging" or "You've got to visit every bookstore within a thousand miles" -- but as Dusty points out, we don't actually know if any of those things will work.

So I think it's important to question the "received wisdom" that gets bandied about so much in the publishing community. Not because a particular strategy does or doesn't work -- but because we don't usually have the evidence necessary to assess them. And thus a healthy dose of skepticism is in order.

Authors need to try to figure out what works best for them, given their personality, their skills, the amount of free time they have, their available resources, the nature of their book, the amount of support they're getting from their publisher, etc. They can't just write a check and hope for the best.

Ask the Critic: Book trailers -- yea or nay?

A reader wrote in yesterday to ask my opinion of book trailers. I answered that I don't think very much of them. In my opinion, they're not terribly effective and probably a waste of money. (Although, if they can be produced cheaply, they probably won't hurt.)

When pressed for an explanation of why I think they don't work, I shared the following reasons (off the top of my head):

• Most book trailers are amateurish.
• They appear to be advertising something other than a book (e.g., a movie) and are thus confusing to the consumer.
• Most of the audience is unfamiliar with or unaware of book trailers, and thus their impact is minimal.
• Most readers don't seem to like them very much. I've never heard readers talk about them and never seen them generate word of mouth.
• They're a form of "push marketing" and thus have to be combined with additional forms of marketing in order to be effective -- but most authors don't use them that way. They post the trailer on their website and on YouTube and that's it. But how is the prospective audience supposed to find them?

I do think book trailers can be somewhat effective when used as part of a larger marketing campaign -- the kind of thing done for bestselling and other high profile authors. But for most writers, especially midlist and debut writers, I believe they're better off spending their (very limited) promotional dollars elsewhere.

But what do you think? Do you like book trailers? Do you ever watch them? Have you ever bought a book based on one?

Big publishing speaks

Jason Pinter, author of The Guilty and formerly an editor at St. Martin's Press (among other places), offered the following thoughts on the subject of vanity press publishing. For background on the discussion, see my post "Big publisher is watching." (This was originally posted on Lee Goldberg's blog. Jason kindly gave permission for me to repost it here.)

Having worked in publishing, with actual editorial experience at three "big publishing" houses, I thought I'd dispel a few myths that have been bandied about here. In my five years in editorial, I acquired both fiction and non-fiction. I've sat in hundreds of editorial meetings, and gotten thousands of submissions from reputable--and disreputable--agents. This is not to toot any sort of horn, but merely to offer proof that I know what I'm talking about. Anyway:

1) Amazon, despite what Yvonne says, is not a distributor. They are a retailer. There is a huge difference. A distributor buys x number of books from a publisher, then "distributes" them among their sales channels. Levy is an example of a distributor. Ingram is a distributor. Distributors have a financial stake in the success of the book. If it does not sell, they lose money.

2) Amazon is not the preferred distributor, or retailer, or anything like that. They are a piece of the puzzle, sure, but as of today only about 3%-5% of that puzzle. Brick and mortar stores, with few exceptions, are the most important part of the puzzle (though big box stores, like Sam's Club and BJ's are growing in importance). It costs Amazon nothing to put up a page for a self-published book, and it certainly doesn't mean they have to order any copies. If a self-published book doesn't sell any copies on Amazon, they lose nothing but the time it took to post the page.

3) There are authors who benefit from self-publishing, but they are extremely rare. They are, with very few exceptions, non-fiction authors who have either a substantial platform or take part in many speaking engagements at which to sell their books. In this case, they benefit from increased royalties. Many NF authors that publish with traditional publishers actually negotiate to buy back a certain amount of copies--at a large discount--in order to both sell at their lectures as well as in B&M stores. Though yes, it is true that sometimes publishers do acquire a book solely because the author commits to a substantial buyback. Yes this is cynical publishing, but publishing is a business, and publishers do what they need to do to stay in business.

4) Big name publishing is only watching if you make them watch. The fact of the matter is, when a self-published novel comes in on submission, it is assumed, often correctly, that the novel could not find a mainstream publisher. Yes, there are self-published novels that are well-written and do eventually land contracts, but again they are exceedingly few and far between. Anyone who thinks self-publishing is the best route to getting a mainstream contract, give me a ring, I have some real estate to sell you...

5) "Big Publishing" generally takes longer to publish books because it takes months to properly sell and promote the book to their accounts. Any publisher, if they wanted to could, put out a book out lickity split. In fact, those books are called "crash books," and they're only done if a book is especially timely and/or publicity driven. But if you print a book in a month just because you can, Barnes & Noble, Borders, Amazon, etc...wouldn't take diddly squat because they'd have no reason to.

6) Publishers do drop the ball. That's the way it works, unfortunately. Good books go unread and don't get the promotion they need or deserve, and bad books become monster bestsellers. Hell, "Fools Gold" was #1 at the box office.

7) There's no doubt publishing is changing, though change is certainly taking its time. The Kindle might be doing well relatively, but ebooks are such a small fraction of book sales (like 1% of 1%) that it's far too early in the device's release for it to have made anywhere near a dent, or even a smudge, on the market.

Just a few thoughts.

Jason Pinter

Big publisher is watching

As part of the discussion on vanity presses mentioned below, Lee Goldberg cited a quote by the proprietor of a POD press that I wanted to address:

"In today’s emerging digital world, if you truly want to attract that big name publisher, use a professional POD firm to self-publish because the big name publishers are watching." --Yvonne DiVita, WME Books.com

If that were true, it might be a compelling argument in favor of the vanity press model. Unfortunately, it is patently false.

In the five years that I've been a professional book critic and commentator on publishing, I've had the pleasure of meeting hundreds of published authors, ranging from first-timers to seasoned pros, small press to large, mid-list to the biggest bestsellers.

Of those hundreds of authors, I am aware of only two that began their careers with a POD-printed book. One of the authors went from a vanity press to a traditional NY publishing house. After two books, she was dropped by the NY house and returned to self publishing.

The other author -- already something of a unique case in that he had significant publishing industry contacts -- used his POD books essentially as promotional items, sending them to reviewers, editors, etc. in an attempt to garner attention for his work. He eventually got a contact with a traditional publisher. Subsequent to that, he stated that he wouldn't advise others to go the POD route and that he didn't think it helped him significantly.

Contrast those two to the hundreds and hundreds of published authors who pursued their career the traditional way. They wrote a book, they submitted it to agents and/or publishers, they got published, they got paid.

So who are all these writers who are attracting the "big name publishers" with their POD books? If the big name publishers really are watching, would any of them care to write in and let me know that? I'm sure my readers would be interested in hearing the news.

Vanity press "publishing"

There's an interesting (and often nasty) discussion going on over at Lee Goldberg's blog regarding the merits of vanity press "publishing." (I put that in quotes because what these presses do is much closer to printing than it is publishing.) The discussion started with a particular vanity press operation and has expanded beyond that to include the method in general.

I've written on this subject before, but as vanity publishing (usually masquerading as POD publishing) becomes more and more popular, it becomes an increasingly important topic for writers to be aware of.

Obviously I don't think very much of the vanity press business. But regardless of your own views, it would behoove any prospective customer of such a company to do extensive research on the subject before they spend their money.

There are too many operations out there that are little more than con jobs, preying on the gullibility and desperation of aspiring writers. Be sure you've done your homework and educated yourself before handing over your credit card number.

Ask the Critic: Do critics request books or are they sent automatically?

In the comments to the post below about my TBR stack, C.T. Henry asks an interesting question that I pulled out to answer here:

Did you request most of these books or were they just sent to you?

Usually, publishers send me the books automatically, without me having to request them. That's the easiest way to operate and it ensures that the books are at least considered for review.

Sometimes, though, the system doesn't work so smoothly and I have to seek out the books and request them. This is a lot more inefficient and doesn't always work particularly well. For one thing, it means I have to be aware of the book in the first place. (I try to keep up with everything, but often books slip through the cracks anyway.)

Also, it means I have to either figure out who the publicist is or just start querying people at the publisher to try to track the book down. For those publishers where I have good, ongoing relationships with the publicists, this is pretty easy to do. But if all I know is that a book is published by Random House, getting my hands on a copy can sometimes be more trouble than it's worth.

(As with all things, some publishers do a lot better job of sending books than others. This has a real impact on which books get reviewed. Too often I'm not even able to consider a particular book for review because I never got a copy.)

In this particular case, most of the books were sent to me, but a few I had to request.

I love this book trailer!

I'm not much of a fan of book trailers. There are a lot of problems with the whole concept, I think, not the least of which is that they're nearly always cheesy.

But I got a kick out of the one for Stephen King's new book, Duma Key. If I hadn't already read the book, this might actually have made me interested in it.

(Tip o' to MJ.)

Final thoughts on marketing/publicity

Everybody knows that it's tougher than ever to get attention for books in today's market. Authors have to work twice as hard and twice as smart in order to achieve success. Furthermore, every person's goals and experiences are different -- that's why it's crucial to gather as much information as you can before you commit to spending your hard-earned bucks. The purpose of these posts isn't to try to convince anyone to do one thing or another. They are, however, intended to get people thinking and to provide information to help authors make smart decisions.

I hope you found them useful.

Discussion on marketing/publicity, part 4

Continuing our discussion on marketing and publicity for authors...

Allison Brennan, New York Times bestselling author, shares her views:

I considered hiring a publicist. As background, I have six published romantic thrillers all of which hit the NYT list, the last two the print list. I'm published in PBO and my publisher distributes my books well, with co-op, etc. The reason I was thinking of hiring one was to help push me to the next level, find non-traditional means of publicity like through working mom's magazines (I have five kids) and bookstores -- particularly indie bookstores since I already have a strong presence in the chains.

I made a list of why I thought I needed a publicist, then sat down at a conference with my agent. We went through all the things I wanted a publicist for, then she talked with others at the agency, and while she came back with publicist recommendations (and I also asked M.J. Rose for recommendations because I trust her about all this stuff!) she also said it really would be a waste of money. Basically, what I wanted was all stuff my publisher could do. We needed to tell them what was important to me, and then talk with them about each individual item and see if they would do it.

They agreed to almost everything, and even came up with some other ideas (like having two different covers for my next book, ala Greg Iles' True Evil. But some of my ideas weren't great, and while I'm sure a publicist would have happily taken my money and worked them, I don't know that they would have translated to more sales.

One other thing is that publicists can't guarantee anything -- reviews, interviews, radio, tv, etc. So it's a lot of money for a crapshoot -- unless like M.J. said you have some big meaty hook that would have media people salivate to get you in their magazine/on their tv show.

Also, good publicists are expensive. I would never recommend to anyone to spend their entire advance -- or half their advance -- on a publicist. Okay, if you're James Patterson and have made money in marketing and want to run your own PR campaign for your book, go for it, but for most of us we don't have that kind of money to spend. And remember -- anything you do had better be backed by your publisher in terms of distribution. For example, are your books going to be readily available for people to purchase? If you spend all this money on promo and publicity, and then your books are only available at select bookstores or online, then you've wasted a lot of money (IMO).

I'm sure some people will disagree with me. I'm sure some people have had success with a publicist and spending mega bucks on promo. But I still think writing another good book is the single best promo for your backlist.

So before you spend big bucks, first see if you can get your publisher to pay for any of your ideas. You might be surprised. For example, if you have an idea of putting ads in a specialty magazine -- like dog magazines -- because your series is about a dog walker, maybe they would do it. If you want to send ARCs to specific booksellers, maybe your publisher will print up another 50 and cover your list. I'm sure there are other ideas.

Discussion on marketing/publicity, part 3

Following up on the question of hiring a PR person, I shared this:

I tend to think that an independent publicist is of little value to most authors when it comes to getting reviews, profiles or feature pieces. Thinking back, I believe I've only reviewed one book as a result of a publicist's exhortations -- and that was because her pitch intrigued my editor. (And the author in question was a bestseller who had a cool off-the-book-page hook.)

Unless you're well known, a major newspaper is extremely unlikely to run a piece about you. However, your local paper is a decent shot, especially if you have some compelling hook. And you can contact them on your own. (A solicitation from you directly might even be more helpful than one from a publicist.)

As for reviews...The usual tactic by independent publicists is to send out mass emails to reviewers with a synopsis of the book, asking if the reviewer is interested in receiving a copy. But your in-house publicist is probably already doing that. And even if they're not, this approach has a very limited rate of success. (And you can always send out books yourself.)

I have also found that some publicists do more harm than good, mostly by being annoying or demanding. Sometimes the actions of a publicist will make me less likely to review a book, rather than more.

Getting reviews is mainly just a matter of sending books to the right reviewers and hoping for the best. A publicist will not increase your chances of success.

There are certain kinds of publicity -- radio & tv especially -- that only a publicist can help you with. But when it comes to the kinds that I've mentioned above, you can often do just as well with a little effort yourself.

Discussion on marketing/publicity, part 2

Continuing our discussion on marketing and publicity for authors...

The question was raised about the pros and cons of hiring a PR person. M.J. Rose responded with this advice:

The press is not interested in fiction/fiction authors in general. Only the biggest/richest/most famous. In general, I'd say that 80% of us don't need big traditional PR people, but combos of other things.

So to beat those odds, you need to know:

1. What's the book about?

2. What is your goal in hiring someone? Reviews? Off the book page stories about you/book? Interviews?

3. Who is the publisher? What is the expected print run? How important is the book to the house? Is it a lead title? Are they doing anything for the book you know about other than review copies and coop?

4. Who are you, other than "an author"? Famous, infamous, background, specialty? (Meaning: Barry Eisler was in the CIA so he wrote a CIA novel - he'll have a better shot at getting PR than me, an ad exec, writing a CIA novel.)

5. What do you think someone would write about in the press when it comes to your book? Other than, "this authors wrote this good book." What's the news? What's the story?

6. What is your budget? $2000-5000? $5000-10,000? $10,000 plus?

7. Pub date of the book?

Once you have the answers to those questions, you'll be in a much better position to start making informed decisions about what to do with your promotional money.

Discussion on marketing/publicity, part 1

There's been an interesting discussion on marketing/publicity on ITW's ThrillerWriters message list recently. It started out as a discussion on book trailers, but has moved on from there. A few people have contributed some excellent advice that I wanted to pass along because I think it's worthwhile for all authors (or prospective authors) to read. (The posters gave their permission for this to be used.)

M.J. Rose, marketing guru and thriller author, was first up with these thoughts:

The rule of thumb is this: When figuring out where to spend your marketing/PR dollars, a video comes after a website and advertising. A video is what to put in your ads. It’s not an ad PR effort on its own. The questions to ask are: How will this help me? Where will people see it?

Never do a video as the only effort. Never do a website as an only effort. They are both static -- meaning no one sees them unless they go looking for them. The bulk of your money and effort have to be on outreach, not in-reach. Videos and websites are both in-reach.

Make sure to ask your publisher: if you do a video, will they pay for it? Will they pay for half of it? If not, and you pay for it yourself, will they use it? How?

There's no magic bullet to marketing your book. The only way to do it is do a lot of different things in as many places as you can. The goal is get exposure for the book in as many places as you can, in as many ways as you can.

The other goal is: for every PR dollar you spend, spend an equal marketing dollar. Meaning: if you hire a publicist for $10,000 you should be spending the same thing on marketing. The reason is that PR is a gamble even with the best PR people, and marketing is an absolute.

(With non-fiction it’s easier to get PR, but with fiction it’s very hard even for the biggest names. For instance, Jon Stewart has 200 books a year on his show. None are fiction.)

I'll share more thoughts in the next post.

First, kill all the lawyers...

A judge has approved a settlement in the case of book buyers who were duped into purchasing James Frey's fictional memoirs. As it turns out, hardly anyone really cared, and only 1729 people filed to get their money back.

Here's the part I like, though. The payments mandated by the settlement break down as follows:

$27,348 in refunds to the 1,729 claimants
$432,000 to publicize the settlement
$180,000 donated to the American Red Cross, Hazelden and First Book
$783,000 for the attorneys

So the lawyers are getting 29 times as much as the aggrieved parties.

Ask the Critic: Availability of UK editions in the U.S.

Carol W. Penney writes:

Why do we in the U.S. have to wait months or years for U.K. or Canadian books?  We can order, for example, the latest Rankin or Stephen Booth from the U.K. or the latest Peter Robinson from Canada, but why can't we obtain them locally?  Is it illegal for Amazon U.S. to get a supply of these books for us?  I prefer to have them "untranslated", as I like a British book to sound British.

Excellent question! As for the first part, the UK publishers are separate from the US publishers, so they purchase publication rights for their respective territories separately. (For example, a book might sell to one publisher in the U.S. and a different publisher in the UK.)

As a result, the timing of releases -- and, in fact, whether or not a book is released at all -- is a business decision that they make individually, based on the mysterious ways of the publishing industry. (In other words, there's not necessarily any rhyme or reason to it.)

As for the second matter, U.S. bookstores do sell UK editions of books. You're not likely to find any UK editions at the local B&N, but mystery bookstores, for example, often carry a few, and they're available online. The problem is, they are expensive. (Presumably because of the cost of freight and the question of returnability.)

For example, Amazon will sell you a copy of the British edition of Meg Gardiner's much-acclaimed China Lake, which is not currently available from a U.S. publisher. However, even though it's a paperback, it still costs $25.

That's why these stores often won't carry UK editions once the American versions are available. There isn't a large enough market to justify the expense. So for those books, you probably need to order directly from a foreign bookstore, like Amazon UK.

If you've got a question for Ask the Critic, please send it in.

Thoughts on self-publishing from M.J. Rose

Linda L. Richard recently interviewed author M.J. Rose for January Magazine. It's a fascinating interview, and I wanted to highlight one segment of it. (For those who aren't familiar with M.J. Rose, she's one of the smartest people in this business, an expert on marketing and the publishing industry in general. She's also a fine thriller writer.)
 

Q. Your first book, Lip Service, was self-published. It was an amazing job. It was beautiful, well-edited, really professional from cover to cover. A lot of people are interested in self-publishing. Is the path you took one that you’d recommend?

A. No. Not for fiction, no.

It was a different time in 1998. There weren’t many self published books at the time, and now there are over 100,000 a year. Plus I didn’t do it as a career move. I never intended to stay self-published. It was an experiment.

I did it because my agent had real interest in the novel but everyone kept telling her there was no way to market my kind of fiction. Since my background is in advertising, I told her I was going to self-publish a few copies, and market them online and then she could show the publishers how to market my kind of fiction. I had no doubt I could figure out how to market the book.

That’s a very different reason to do what I did than so many people now who do it now.

Q. In what way?

 A. So many self published authors tell me they’ve self published after being rejected by one or two agents and/or one or two publishers who have criticized the quality of their work. Said it wasn’t well written, or original or needed more work. Those are the last writers who should be self publishing. When I ask them how they know their books are ready to be published, they say because their friends love their work, or their family.

I think no one who can’t get a quality agent should publish on their own. Agents are always looking for new authors and I believe if the book can’t interest an agent, the author would be better served working on his or her craft for a while longer. I had written three horrible novels before I got an agent with a fourth novel. And then Lip Service was my fifth.

My advice hasn’t changed for the last eight years. Self-publishing fiction is a last step. It’s only an option when you’ve tried the traditional route and rewritten the book a dozen times.

I say this because even wonderful writers published with top houses can’t break out. So much is published now and book marketing is so difficult. How much hope is there really for an average or less than quality book that's got no support behind it? Stores don’t want to give the self published books a chance, most reviewers don't want to to either. It’s not an uphill climb anymore: it’s a Mt. Everest climb times 100,000.

You won't get any better advice than that. Rose has been there and she understands the realities of the publishing industry today better than almost anyone else. For more of her thoughts, read her excellent blog.

Why I love publishing: Reason #42

The other day I got a big box dropped on my doorstep by FedEx. "Cool!" I thought to myself. "That's a lot of books!" I get books nearly every day, but I still enjoy the anticipation of seeing what each package will bring, especially when it's a such a large box. (There's got to be something good in there, I reckon.)

So I tear the box open to find... Thirty-four audiobooks! Unfortunately, they're all the same audiobook, I've never heard of it, it's not a crime novel, and it doesn't look like anything I'd be interested in.

Clearly, there's been some error. And not, unfortunately, an error that does me much good. What the hell am I going to do with all of these audiobooks?

So I find the shipping label and get the sender's name off of it (an employee of one of the big houses),  figure out her email address, and send her a message. You sent me these audiobooks by mistake, I write. I assume you want them back?

I hear back: Sorry! Don't know why those went to you. They were supposed to go to the surplus warehouse. You can throw them away.

Talk about a little perspective on the realities of this business. On the other hand, my Christmas shopping is all done, and it's only September!

Taking advantage of the desperate

I'm on record as not thinking very much of the "publishing services" provided by such outlets as PublishAmerica and AuthorHouse. These companies have much more in common with con artists than they do with real publishers.

(On the other hand, it's the responsibility of the consumer, as well as the would-be author, to educate themselves to the realities of the industry. If people get taken advantage of, they usually have only themselves to blame.)

Now, The Bookseller reports that Borders UK is going to start selling space on their shelves to self-published writers. For a price ranging from £849 to £1999, AuthorHouse will not only "publish" (in reality, they will print copies of) your book, they'll also make the book available for purchase on the shelves of a select number of Borders bookstores in the UK.

Granted, the book will only be available in one of five Borders stores (for 10 weeks), and there will only be three copies of the book, segregated in a special area of the store. (I'd love to see what the sign on that section says.)

Still...Doesn't that sound like it's worth 2 grand?

Do rave reviews sell more books?

I.J. Parker asked a question over on Sarah's blog that got me thinking: why don't rave reviews translate into bigger sales for books?

(We'll assume for argument's sake that the premise is true. It's hard to measure the relationship between reviews and sales, as there is no direct method of tracking them. But I think that there is to at least some extent a disconnect between the two. I do believe that reviews sell books, but I'm not sure that the intensity of preference expressed by the reviewer makes much of a difference.)

I think that for most readers, reviews function more in the manner of advertising, rather than as specific motivators to buy. They make the consumer aware of the product, but they don't necessarily compel them to buy it. Therefore, the relative enthusiasm the reviewer expresses for the book, whether positive or negative, doesn't matter that much.

People see a review and it puts the book in their mind. So perhaps if they have some degree of interest in the author already, or if they see some subsequent reinforcement of that image, they might decide to buy the book. But I don't think there is a large number of readers who read a rave review and then, as a direct result, go out and buy the book. I would like to think that we, as reviewers, have that kind of influence, but I don't believe we do.

Obviously, this is all speculation, as we don't have the data to test the premise. (Although a few economists tried a while back, using some fuzzy Amazon data, and concluded that the positive or negative quality of the review did have an impact on sales.)

Perhaps the overall problem is a larger one, namely that readers don't pay a lot of attention to book reviews in the first place. I also don't think the average newspaper consumer is a careful reader of reviews. They'll be flipping through the paper and see a review of the new Dan Brown book and think, "Oh cool, the guy who wrote The Da Vinci Code has a new one out" but not stop to appreciate that the review is actually saying it's a piece of garbage.

I also wonder if the "grade inflation" in reviews -- too many raves for too many lousy books, a phenomenon I see all the time -- has caused consumers simply to discount the praise reviewers bestow upon books. This is also a significant risk, I think, of the proliferation of amateur online reviews, which are generally ill-considered and overly enthusiastic, if not outright puffery (paging Harriet Klausner).

I don't have any hard answers here, but I find it interesting to think about. Feel free to share your thoughts in the comments below.

Lessons learned from the industry panel at ThrillerFest

These are things that people on my panel brought up. I wasn't taking notes, so this is all from memory.

Co-op is everything. Co-op is the industry term for cooperative advertising money. This is money paid by the publisher to booksellers in order to stock their books (in the case of airports and similar) and to give their books prime placement (in the case of bookstores). If you see a book in the front of B&N, it's likely that the publisher paid them to put it there. Co-op is the most expensive and the most important part of advertising that any book will receive. It is crucial for a book's success.

It's almost impossible to say how many books it takes to make the New York Times bestseller list. It varies wildly from week to week, depending on the competition. It's possible that you might make the list with as few as 7000 books sold in a week. But other weeks a book might sell many more than that and not even get close. (I did hear from a trusted source, not on the panel, that it takes a minimum of 35,000 books shipped in order to have a chance to make the list.)

Although making the New York Times list is important, it's more important to sell a lot of books. More books sold is always better than a higher ranking. It also doesn't matter if the book gets all its sales up-front, or if it gets them over the course of months. The total sales is what matters in the end.

Timing is very important to a book's success. (And that's why there are hardly any books being published this week -- everyone is staying away from Harry Potter.) The competition a book faces, especially in the initial weeks, can determine its fate. Thus the publishers track when everyone is publishing their books and schedule their own releases accordingly. The late fall is an especially busy time for big-name books.

Be nice to your editor. It's not her fault if the book does poorly. Also, be nice to your editor's assistant. They will often give authors information they aren't supposed to have, especially if the editor is on vacation.

BookScan numbers can be unreliable, but there is disagreement as to how unreliable. They probably track around 60-70% of sales, but this can vary depending on the type of book. (A subscription to BookScan, by the way, runs 6 figures annually.)

Online sales aren't very important for bestsellers. For someone like Tess Gerritsen, Amazon only represents 3% of total books sold. Also, Amazon rankings don't mean much. A book can jump significantly with only minimal sales.

The big box stores (price clubs, WalMart, etc.) are extremely important for mass success. If a book isn't sold in those stores, it's unlikely to be a bestseller. Sales through those outlets amount to as much as 40% of a bestseller's total sales. However, for first-time or unknown authors, the chance of your books being sold there is very small. So don't expect it.

The cover of a book is the single most important factor in closing customer sales. Covers are often a contentious topic between publishers and authors, and publishers don't do much in the way of market testing to find out what works. (The publishing industry in general doesn't do much market research.) If an author is going to complain about a cover, it's best to have specific areas of objection, and suggestions for improvements. Bestselling authors like Gerritsen can get cover approval, but new authors cannot.

It's hard to get your book reviewed if you're a first-time author. It's hard to get your book reviewed if you're an unknown author. It's hard to get your book reviewed no matter what! (It's not impossible, though. And it helps if the book is interesting and fresh.)

The best way to get your book reviewed, and the best way to have it be a success, is to write the best book you possibly can. And that is the one area of the process over which an author actually has control.

More thoughts on the publishing industry

Another day, another link to M.J. Rose's excellent blog. Today the thoughts are my own. As part of a series Rose is running on the business of writing and publishing, I muse on the topic of "Challenging tradition."

Thoughts on publishing from Simon Lipskar

Simon Lipskar, one of the smartest (and nicest) people in this business, has some very interesting things to say over on M.J. Rose's blog.

The general topic of his post is "what should I do to support my book?" and his answers make for valuable reading.

Some stats on book buying

Content Connections, a consulting firm specializing in audience research, conducted a "non-scientific survey" earlier this spring to determined who is buying books.

Their results: The biggest book buyers are largely married, middle-age career women who make an average of $88,000 a year and have at least a bachelor's degree.

The average female book buyer was 45 years old and bought 28 books, spending $280 on nonfiction titles and $147 on fiction titles. She typically lives in a large city and purchases a third of her books online but prefers to visit the local bookstore where she spends 40 minutes browsing.

A stat I found particularly interesting: 43 percent said they had intentions to write their own book someday!

(You can download the complete study here. You may need to register.)

10 Things An Author Shouldn't Do

Over on M.J. Rose's blog, I offer up my list of 10 Things An Author Shouldn't Do.

(As it turns out, there are only 8 of them... Must be part of the New Austerity.)

St. Martin's Minotaur/Mystery Writers of America Best First Crime Novel Competition

St. Martin's Minotaur and the Mystery Writers of America have teamed up to present a new contest for unpublished writers. There aren't many requirements, other than it has to be at least 60,000 words and must feature "murder or another serious crime or crimes...at the heart of the story."

The prize is a one-book contract and $10,000 advance. You can see the complete rules on the website.

Ghostwriting and more

I was interviewed a while back by a reporter for the Arizona Republic for an article about the use of ghostwriters, co-writers and other related phenomena in today's publishing world: "Whodunit? Your favorite author may be just a brand name."

It's an interesting topic for "inside baseball" fans to discuss, but I don't think the majority of readers give a whit who actually wrote the book. As a critic, I do sometimes find it a little frustrating, though.

(I'd forgotten all about this, so a tip o' the hat to Sarah for finding the piece.)

Pitching books

I get scores of pitches from publicists, asking me to review their books. (I must get at least 5-10 solicitations most days.) Sometimes these pitches are effective, making me interested in the book. More often, though, they're not.

In the past week or so I've gotten two that take the form of the clichéd Hollywood style of pitching. (I don't know that anyone in Hollywood actually does this... I should ask Guyot. But I suspect they don't.)

Try these on for size:

• First book: A new international thriller is like "Thomas Harris meets Dan Brown." What does that mean exactly? A psychopath eats the Mona Lisa?

• Second book: "It's like CSI meets Medium on Survivor!"

I don't know about you, but neither of those pitches made me even remotely interested in reading the book. I would not watch Medium and I certainly wouldn't watch Survivor, so why on earth would I be interested in reading a book that was like them in any way? (The first pitch, at least, didn't put me off as much as it bored me.)

How about you? Does that grab your attention?

Tip of the day

If you come across a blog that offers to tell you how to write or how to get published, and that person is "published" by iUniverse or Publish America or some other vanity press, I suggest you look elsewhere for advice.

It's shocking, the bad information that's out there in the blogosphere. Browsers should be issued with warning labels: "Caution: Contents may be full of shit."

How to find reputable agents and publishers

Over on Lee Goldberg's blog, one of the current discussions is on the topic of the legitimacy (or illegitimacy) of various publishing operations. A reader posted a question that I thought was a good one:

Where do you go to find reputable agents and publishers?

Here is my advice...

For agents: Read the deal announcements on Publishers Marketplace. See who is selling books in your genre and to which publishers. That should give you a clue as to who is actually doing business. If an agent sells books to Putnam, St. Martin's, etc., they're legitimate.

For publishers: Go the bookstore or check out Amazon. See who is publishing the books you like and the authors you respect. They are likely to be legit.

You can also check out the accepted publishers lists maintained by MWA and ITW:

If you've never heard of the publisher, see which books they've published. If you've never heard of any of the authors or books, that should tell you something.

Is this a fair blurb?

I received an email today promoting the release of Jed Rubenfeld's much-hyped new thriller, The Interpretation of Murder.

At the top of the email it says in big type: "'The pop-cultural sensation'* is on sale today."

We follow the asterisk down below and see the source of the quote. It turns out to be Janet Maslin's review in the New York Times.

Here is the excerpt from that review:

"Credit Mr. Rubenfeld with a smart, jocular approach to an elaborate undertaking. His will be no ordinary pop-cultural sensation... [There is more which I'm omitting.]"

Is it fair to extract three words from Maslin's review -- "pop-cultural sensation" -- and then brand the book as "The pop-cultural sensation," even though that's not what she's really saying?

I don't think it is. How 'bout you?

2007 will be a Killer Year

Old news here, but I wanted to mention it anyway... A group of debut crime novelists, with books all coming out in 2007, has banded together to form a collective called Killer Year.

They're trying to cross-promote each other's work and hopefully gain some publicity for the group as a whole. Definitely a nice idea. It's incumbent upon authors these days to search for creative ways to gain attention, and this is an innovative one.

In an attempt to help out, I've decided that I will read and review all of the books put out in 2007 by Killer Year novelists. I can't guarantee everyone a newspaper review, unfortunately, but at the least, I can write about them here on the blog.

Once the last of them is published, I'll pick my favorite of the bunch and anoint it the Killer Book of the Year. (How's that for a remarkable act of hubris?)

For the record, I've already read two of the books and they're both quite good. So I'm expecting big things for this bunch.

Watch this space for more on the Killer Year books -- and definitely check out what the group is up to. There are some fine writers participating.

(By the way, I've opened up comments on this post, so you can tell me if I'm getting too big of an ego.)

Now that's what I call a book cover

The cover for the trade paperback edition of James Sallis' superb crime novel Drive is one of the best I've seen in a long time.

(Click to see the full-size image.)

When you consider that the cover of a book is one of the single most important factors when it comes to sales, Harvest Books (an imprint of Harcourt) really did a stand-out job on this one.

Granted, it always helps a book's appearance to have a blurb on the cover from me. (In this case, the single word, "Stunning," which was taken from my Boston Globe review.) But even apart from that, it's really a sharp, attractive and eye-catching cover.

If I saw that book in the bookstore, I'd pick it up. You should, too. It's a helluva good read.

Authors who blog and other diversions

Over at Buzz, Balls & Hype, M.J. Rose has an excellent post on author blogging. Apparently, mega-publishing company Holtzbrinck (Holt, St. Martin's Press, FSG, Tor, etc.) has launched an initiative to get their authors blogging. Best of all, it will only take then 10 minutes a week, and they'll get tons of free publicity!

There's so much wrong about the whole concept, but M.J. explains it well, so I won't go into it. She does make a point, though, that I want to single out:

Blogging does NOT sell books for the average blogger in any way that justifies the time it takes.

In these days when the common wisdom is that "every author needs a blog," this is a crucial fact that doesn't get mentioned enough. There are always a few exceptions, especially people who got into the game early on. But for 90% of authors, blogging is a colossal waste of time. (Unless, of course, they simply enjoy doing it for its own purposes, in which case it's fine. If they're doing it for publicity, though, forget it.)

Publishers should be spending their time thinking of the NEXT way for authors to get publicity, not piling on the last way that hardly worked for anyone anyway. (And they should try to find ways that don't require the author spending several hours a week doing it! Ten minutes, my sweet patoot.)

Any author who launches Yet Another Blog at this point without some unique, exciting and valuable angle is just spinning their wheels.

On the other hand, you should have a MySpace account.  :)

ThrillerFest Marketing Panel

M.J. Rose, David J. Montgomery, Sarie Morrell (photo credit: J.T. Ellison)

I was on the Marketing Panel at ThrillerFest, along with author/marketing guru M.J. Rose and publicist Sarie Morrell.

Here is some of the information that came out during the panel:

• No single strategy works for everyone. There is no magic bullet. Lots of little things can add up to success.
• Authors need to spend a portion of their advance (at least $5000) on marketing themselves and their book.
• Authors need to become marketing partners with their publishers.
• When talking to your publisher, don't demand. Offer.
• Advertising can help, but you need to be careful about how you spend your money. If you're going to invest in ads, you really need to know what you're doing.
• A one-time ad in the New York Times is not going to do much for you. Something like AuthorBuzz is a better investment.
• A professional-looking website is essential. It doesn't have to be fancy or expensive, though. Don't spend all your money on this.
• Authors should do everything within reason to make sure reviewers receive their book. Never assume that your publisher will take care of this, even if they tell you they will.
• Your in-house publicist is incredibly busy and is likely working on dozens of books simultaneously.
• Find out who the reviewers are who write the most about your genre. Get them your book, even if you have to send it yourself.
• Independent publicists can help, but you need to make sure you get a reputable one.
• Authors must be realistic about what a publicist can do for them, and understand where they are in their career and what they can expect. There are no guarantees.
• Don't feel bad if you can't do as much as J.A. Konrath!

Above all, I would advise every writer to educate themselves as much as they can about this business. Ignorance is a sure path to failure.

Book Signing 101

Book signings can be a lot of fun, and my wife and I always try to attend if someone we know is making an appearance. (One of the most important practices that I hope all authors will adopt is to support each other!)

Last night, Barry Eisler did a signing at the Barnes & Noble in Bethesda, Maryland, so we made the trek over the river to see him.

Barry is one the best authors I've observed when it comes to making public appearances. He's smooth, professional and charismatic. That's a hard act for a lot of us to follow. But that doesn't mean we can't do our best to make book signings (and other public appearances) successful.

I've never done a book signing, but I have been to a lot of them. Here is some advice based on things I've observed:

1) Make sure your appearance is professional and appropriate. I won't tell you how to dress -- that will vary a lot depending on who you are and what your image is -- but try to look nice. Speak clearly and confidently. Don't hem or haw, don't "um" and "like," don't swear gratuitously. (Book signings are invariably held next to the kid's books section, so shape your content as necessary.)

2) Meet and chat up the employees. Remember, they're the ones who will be selling your books once you're gone.

3) Introduce yourself to audience members individually before you begin. People love to have a chance to meet the author personally and say hello. I think that making a personal connection with readers is the most powerful tool an author has for selling books. Granted, it's difficult to meet very many fans. But if you're already taking the time to go to the bookstore, make the most of it.

4) Make sure the people in the back can hear you. The spaces used for author talks are often awkward, so it can be hard for everyone to hear. Learn to speak using a microphone, and learn to speak up when one isn't available.

5) Prepare for the formal portion of your talk, keep it reasonably brief, and make it interesting. Now is not the time to speak extemporaneously. Make sure you know what you want to say. Introduce yourself, talk about your work in general, then talk about the current book. Include a couple of stories or anecdotes (funny or otherwise) in your talk; maybe something about researching the book, or writing the book. People enjoy hearing about the process. Even if the audience seems familiar with you and your work already, give them the 5-minute talk about who you are and what you write anyway. It's necessary for the new people in attendance, and won't bother the veterans.

6) Don't read from your book. This is controversial with some people, but I think that it's good advice. Readings often don't make sense out of context, they usually aren't particularly entertaining, and many authors aren't very good at reading aloud. Most of us would be better off using the time doing something else.

7) Leave sufficient time for Q&A. People love to have the chance to ask questions. Make sure to repeat an abbreviated version of the question before you answer it. A lot of people probably weren't able to hear the question the first time around. Also, don't let one person monopolize the questions.

8) Refer people to your website for more information. Give them the address.

9) Speak confidently about yourself and your work. Don't be arrogant, but don't be a shrinking violet either.

10) When you sign the book, stick a business card or bookmark or something in it. This isn't a necessity, but I think it's a nice touch. It should have your website address on it so that people can look you up once they get home.

11) Be spontaneous when necessary. The above advice is most appropriate for signings with a crowd of at least 20 people or so. Many times you won't get that. If that's the case, improvise. You might want to dispense with the more formal portion of your talk and just speak informally to the audience. Try to get a sense of how they're reacting to you and tailor your approach as necessary.

12) Remember, the audience is there because they want to hear what you have to say. Make sure you're not wasting their time. Make the experience entertaining, rewarding and informative.

Now get out there and sell books!

BookExpo America

BookExpo America (BEA) is the largest publishing event in the country, an annual gathering of thousands of authors, booksellers, librarians and publishing pros. I'm not entirely sure what they all do once they get together, as I've never been before. This year's convention is in Washington, D.C., though, so I'll be there.

I'll be participating on a panel that should be very interesting:

State of The Thriller
Friday, May, 19 @ 2:30PM

"Featuring industry participants from author to bookseller, thriller specialists will dissect the industry’s hottest selling genre. Panelists will attempt to answer where the Thriller genre is headed, which authors are emerging, why thrillers dominate bestseller lists and what we might expect in the near future."

Participants:

• David Morrell - Author [Moderator]
• James Patterson - Author
• David J. Montgomery - Critic, Chicago Sun Times
• Margaret O'Neil Marbury, Executive Editor, MiraBooks
• Simon Lipskar, agent, Writerer's House
• Dan Conaway, Executive Editor, Putnam

If you're wondering what I'm doing on there... Well, I am, too! But at least this is a topic that I can speak intelligently about.

So if you're going to be at BEA, please try to stop by the panel. It should be a good one. And definitely find me to say hello.

Profitable publishing after all?

Random House (a division of multinational media giant Bertelsmann AG), the world's largest publishing company, announced today its financials for 2005. Their operating profit was $202 million (an increase of 18% over 2004) on revenues of $2.21 billion (a 1.6% increase).

This robust performance was led in part by increased sales of John Grisham's The Broker and Dan Brown's The Da Vinci Code.

A profit margin of 9% is quite respectable, about equal to what you'd typically see in other industries, including software, telecom and oil.

So why, with numbers like that, is publishing believed to be such a poor industry?

You've got me.

More on pseudonyms

Two people emailed me in response to my recent post about the use of pseudonyms and whether or not journalists and reviewers have a responsibility to protect the authors' true identities.

I wrote that, in most cases, I didn't think there is an obligation to keep the secret. When I made that statement, I had in mind the recent trend in publishing where authors use pseudonyms either for marketing purposes or to "trick" the chain store buyers.

In that case, assuming that the author's true identity is somehow relevant to what I'm writing, I would not feel obligated to play along.

However, in the case of authors who use a dedicated pseudonym (i.e., they always write under the same alias) or authors who must cloak their identities for legitimate reasons, there would likely be no reason to discuss the author's real name or identity.

As one of my correspondents wrote, "Before revealing the writer's real name, it's the journalist's obligation to think through the consequences." Good point.

Ultimately, it comes down to relevance. Is the author's use of a pseudonym relevant to the discussion or critique of the book? If not, then mentioning it would not be appropriate.

Weighing in on "A Million Little Lies"

The big literary topic in the news the past week, of course, has been the revelation that James Frey's gazillion-selling memoir A Million Little Pieces is mostly a pack of lies.

Frey's apologists, including Oprah Winfrey, have argued that this is "much ado about nothing" and that the book is "emotionally [true]" (whatever the hell that means). We are told that memoirs are expected to be fabricated, so it's no big deal.

Such defenses, impassioned and even well-intentioned though they may be, are misguided, if not downright dangerous.

There is a general expectation when reading memoirs that, although some details may be misremembered, and some events may be interpreted differently, and that recollections of varying parties will always vary, there is nonetheless a commitment to truth and accuracy that don't depend on subjective perspectives.

If I have a fight with my wife, which of us started it might be a legitimate matter of differing memories. If a pair of songwriters collaborate on a song, they might each remember differently whose the initial spark of inspiration was. If a drunk is on a bender and wakes up covered in vomit in the back of a police car, whether or not that happened in 1993 or 1994 isn't really that important.

However, whether or not a person went to jail, or whether or not they contributed to the deaths of two people, or whether or not they were an FBI informant, are not matters of interpretation or subjective memory. They either happened or they didn't. If you report in an allegedly truthful recounting of your life that they happened when really they did not, then you're a liar and the entire work is suspect.

A few errors here and there are to be expected in a work of autobiography. Inconsistencies on minor details are excusable. Even an attempt to exaggerate one's own importance, or to enhance one's reputation, is natural. But a repeated, deliberate and consistent pattern of fabrication exposes the work to be either fiction or fraud -- and certainly not worthy of this kind of attention.

As readers and consumers, we have to rely, at least to some reasonable extent, on the reputation of a company like Random House to vet the manuscripts they sell under the banner of non-fiction. That's not to say that we have an expectation of 100% accuracy. But if, on balance, a story is more not true than it is true, it is deceitful to publish it as non-fiction. We call such works novels and they should be published and marketed as such.

So, does this even matter? As a former historian, I think it matters a lot. The general public already has a hard enough time differentiating between truth and fiction. The difference between gossip and news is already a shaky concept for too many people. Our collective knowledge of history and our understanding of what did and what did not happen is abysmally poor. And that's a problem.

Sure, most academics and critics and publishing professionals are no doubt savvy enough to realize that a book like Frey's contains, at the least, gross exaggerations. But is the average TV viewer who reads the book based on talk show host's recommendation sophisticated enough? Is a high school kid who picks up the book in the library hip to what Frey is doing?

If it's acceptable to write a book about your life that's full of lies, maybe in and of itself that's not important. But what effect does that have on the public's overall confidence in the truth of what they read? If a non-fiction memoir published by Random House can't be relied upon to be at least reasonably accurate, how can we believe their history books, their biographies or their science monographs?

Even in the field of memoir, there is a reasonable presumption of accuracy, or else the book is worthless as an autobiography. If A Million Little Pieces is no more truthful than The Hitler Diaries, then it should be treated as such.

End of the Year Recap

2005 is almost over. There were approximately 1500-2000 mysteries and thrillers published in the United States (not counting the vanity crap) and I saw most of them. I only managed to read 150 or so new books, but even that ought to earn me some kind of medal.

Overall, it was a good year for crime fiction, but not a great one. The last quarter of the year, in particular, was soft. Looking over my reading list, the last 2005 book I read that might qualify for my Top 10 list was published in September.

Speaking of Top 10 lists, I still haven't made mine yet, but there are several solid contenders. Nothing that really stands head-and-shoulders above the rest, though. This was a year of many good books, but few great ones. (I would be hard-pressed to single out a 2005 book and call it great.) We'll have to wait to see if any of them have the staying power to become great ones later on. So far, I have my doubts.

This was a lukewarm year for debuts. There were some good first-time books, but the overall pool was pretty shallow. (So many of them were just downright bad, too, making me wonder how they ever got published in the first place.) I suppose this is probably true most years, but maybe I'm just noticing it more this time since I'm a judge for the ITW's Best First Novel Award. It's been no easy task, believe me.

The best thing happening in the genre right now is that there is a steady and reliable core group of authors who publish a book each year that you can almost guarantee will be good. People like Barry Eisler, David Morrell, Joseph Finder, Laura Lippman, Denise Hamilton, Lawrence Block, George Pelecanos, Julia Spencer-Fleming, Lee Child, Stephen White and Daniel Silva once again put out excellent books that show why they're the dependable professionals they are. All of them should be bestsellers.

A handful of promising, relatively new writers like James O. Born, Harley Jane Kozak, Dylan Schaffer and Duane Swierczynski demonstrated why they're likely to become tomorrow's stars of the genre. I look forward to reading them for years to come.

There were also some authors who've been around for a while whose books took me by surprise (in a good way). Jonnie Jacobs wrote a thriller that I really enjoyed, and I was quite pleased with Reed Farrel Coleman's latest. I read my first book from the Burke family (one by Alafair) and was impressed. David Ellis wrote a thriller that unfolds in a reverse chronology that was both daring and entertaining. Paul Levine made a very welcome return to publishing -- I missed him the first time around, but loved his new book.

Of course, there were disappointments as well, with books by Robert Crais, P.J. Tracy and Elmore Leonard that let me down. There were also several highly hyped books ("The next Lee Child!" "The thriller debut of the year!") that I tried and didn't like, but that always happens.

Michael Connelly managed to have two books out (The Closers and The Lincoln Lawyer) that could qualify for Best of the Year status. Amazing. I've heard a rumor that he'll also have two books released in 2006. If true, I think I'll have to smite him.

Of course, Dean Koontz also had two books released in 2005 that could make my Top 10 list, but he does that every year. He's currently on a streak of 6 books in the last 3 years, all of which have been amazing. I don't know that anyone else could accomplish that.

The one book that really did blow me away this year isn't even out yet, even though I read it back in September. Robert Ferrigno's Prayers for the Assassin was probably the best thing I read all year, and it still won't be published until February. This is one of those books that gets in your head and just won't go away. One of the things that I particularly appreciated about it is that it tries to be something special and ambitious. (And, of course, it succeeds, which always helps.) I really hope people read it.

I finally read The Guards this year and learned why Ken Bruen is the favorite among crime fiction fans and writers that he is. I also finally met Ken after having just seen him across the bar at various functions for the past couple years. He's far too kind and generous a man to write that well.

I would be remiss if I didn't mention the incomparable J.K. Rowling, whose latest Harry Potter book was once again one of my favorite reads. I know she has nothing to do with crime fiction, but that woman is amazing and I stand in awe, both of her talent and her success.

I re-read 9 books by Ross Thomas, my favorite thriller writer, over the past year and they were all wonderful. (A few of the early ones don't hold up quite as well, but they're still very enjoyable.) Thomas' body of work is unmatched in this or any other genre. I miss him a lot.

Finally, 2005 was also a year in which we lost some wonderful writers, including Evan Hunter (aka Ed McBain), Trevanian (aka Rodney Whittaker), John Fowles, Edward Bunker, A.J. Quinnell, Charlotte MacLeod and my friend Dennis Lynds. All of them will be missed.

Here's looking forward to a great year in 2006. Happy reading!

p.s. If I forgot an author or a book, please forgive me. The lists above aren't intended to be exhaustive.

A Letter to Book Biz Santa

My Letter to the Book Biz Santa is now available for reading over at M.J. Rose's blog, Buzz, Balls & Hype.

Enjoy!

The effect of reviews on book sales

Yale professors Judith A. Chevalier and Dina Mayzlin (Economics and Management, respectively) have released the results of a study they did analyzing the effects of "word of mouth" (in the form of customer reviews) on book sales at Amazon and BN.com. (You can also read a draft of their final paper here.)

Their methodology was not as rigorous as one would ideally wish for (since it's nearly impossible to get hard sales data), but they did come up with some interesting conclusions.

• Overall, reviews are overwhelmingly positive at both sites, and slightly more positive at BN.com.
• Amazon has more reviews, and they are longer and more detailed.
• Prices for the books in their sample were "significantly higher" at BN.com than at Amazon. (This is not apropos to the discussion at hand, but I found it very interesting nonetheless.)
• The addition of favorable reviews at one site increases book sales at that site relative to the other retailer.
• Negative reviews carry more weight with consumers than do positive reviews.
• The impact of a negative review is more powerful in decreasing book sales than a positive review is in increasing sales.

In short, positive reviews boost sales and negative reviews lower sales -- and the effect of the negative reviews is stronger than the effect of the positive reviews.

This was particularly interesting to me since it differs from the traditionally perceived effect of print reviews, where both positive and negative reviews are thought to boost sales. But it just shows the differences in the model when you're looking at a single entity that combines both reviews and sales.

When customers can see the review at the point of purchase, it obviously has a different effect than if they read it in a newspaper, for example, and then subsequently see the book in a store or online. In the latter case, the negative effects of a pan might be more ameliorated, and the book might actually benefit from the increased level of recognition and attention.

If scientists had access to more hard data we could get an even better understanding about the effects of reviews on book sales. (One of the fundamental challenges of publishing is that the publishers don't have the data and economic analysis to support many of their practices.) But this is interesting to see in the meantime.